DDM Analysis: 600851.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.19 - $1.81	$1.48
Multi-Stage	$1.08 - $1.17	$1.12
Blended Fair Value	$1.30
Current Price	$6.56
Upside	-80.13%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.32%	10.06%	0.07	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.08	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	43.16%	21.84%	1.37%	14.04%	-32.62%	40.56%	24.27%	-64.49%	-29.11%	336.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	0.79%	0.62%	0.48%	0.41%	0.60%	0.40%	0.26%	0.68%	0.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	156.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	23.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)	132.59

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.25	19.53	11.72
Cash Retained (M)	132.59	132.59	132.59
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.25	-19.53	-11.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)	101.34	113.06	120.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,206.17	1,206.17	1,206.17
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.09	0.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	13.38%	13.38%	13.38%
Growth Rate	4.32%	5.32%	6.32%
Fair Value	$1.19	$1.48	$1.81
Upside / Downside	-81.80%	-77.41%	-72.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	156.25	164.56	173.32	182.54	192.25	202.48	208.56
Payout Ratio	15.14%	30.11%	45.08%	60.06%	75.03%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	23.66	49.56	78.14	109.63	144.24	182.23	192.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	13.38%	13.38%	13.38%
Growth Rate	4.32%	5.32%	6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)	43.29	43.71	44.12
Year 2 PV (M)	59.64	60.79	61.95
Year 3 PV (M)	73.10	75.22	77.39
Year 4 PV (M)	84.03	87.30	90.66
Year 5 PV (M)	92.75	97.28	101.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	946.29	992.52	1,040.55
Equity Value (M)	1,299.11	1,356.83	1,416.66
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,206.17	1,206.17	1,206.17
Fair Value	$1.08	$1.12	$1.17
Upside / Downside	-83.58%	-82.85%	-82.10%

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Shanghai Haixin Group Co., Ltd. (600851.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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