Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation (600759.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.44 - $0.59$0.52
Multi-Stage$0.81 - $0.90$0.85
Blended Fair Value$0.69
Current Price$2.35
Upside-70.82%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.05%-12.24%0.020.020.010.010.030.060.110.160.060.05
YoY Growth---21.60%74.33%-14.42%-53.04%-50.89%-42.74%-30.56%178.73%19.50%-24.12%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.78%0.55%0.53%1.60%2.72%3.12%3.99%0.70%0.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)428.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)363.05
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)85.6653.5432.12
Cash Retained (M)363.05363.05363.05
(-) Cash Required (M)-85.66-53.54-32.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)277.39309.51330.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,994.793,994.793,994.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.090.090.10
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Fair Value$0.44$0.52$0.59
Upside / Downside-81.15%-77.92%-74.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)428.29397.77369.43343.11318.66295.95304.83
Payout Ratio15.23%30.19%45.14%60.09%75.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.24120.07166.76206.18239.14266.36281.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.66%9.66%9.66%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Year 1 PV (M)108.31109.49110.67
Year 2 PV (M)135.69138.66141.66
Year 3 PV (M)151.34156.33161.44
Year 4 PV (M)158.34165.35172.58
Year 5 PV (M)159.09167.93177.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,527.002,667.552,814.28
Equity Value (M)3,239.763,405.313,577.81
Shares Outstanding (M)3,994.793,994.793,994.79
Fair Value$0.81$0.85$0.90
Upside / Downside-65.49%-63.73%-61.89%

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