Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chengtun Mining Group Co., Ltd. (600711.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.46 - $128.87$88.19
Multi-Stage$15.73 - $17.20$16.45
Blended Fair Value$52.32
Current Price$10.32
Upside407.00%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.05%22.14%0.220.120.130.100.110.100.150.090.070.04
YoY Growth--86.56%-7.25%26.15%-11.78%14.07%-35.16%73.79%26.91%75.12%34.28%
Dividend Yield--3.90%2.61%2.21%1.17%1.75%2.42%2.36%1.02%0.99%0.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,006.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)711.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,294.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)401.28250.80150.48
Cash Retained (M)1,294.441,294.441,294.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-401.28-250.80-150.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)893.161,043.641,143.96
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,096.333,096.333,096.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.290.340.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.46$88.19$128.87
Upside / Downside214.57%754.58%1,148.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,006.422,136.842,275.742,423.662,581.202,748.982,831.44
Payout Ratio35.49%46.39%57.29%68.19%79.10%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)711.98991.241,303.791,652.792,041.652,474.082,619.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.18%7.18%7.18%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)916.11924.80933.48
Year 2 PV (M)1,113.651,134.861,156.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,304.751,342.211,380.37
Year 4 PV (M)1,489.571,546.861,605.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,668.261,748.841,832.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,202.2444,240.6346,357.02
Equity Value (M)48,694.5950,938.1953,265.43
Shares Outstanding (M)3,096.333,096.333,096.33
Fair Value$15.73$16.45$17.20
Upside / Downside52.39%59.41%66.69%

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