Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.,Ltd. (600674.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.58 - $108.92$45.59
Multi-Stage$16.23 - $17.76$16.98
Blended Fair Value$31.29
Current Price$14.28
Upside119.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.28%32.78%0.510.370.360.340.310.270.250.270.240.14
YoY Growth--38.06%1.21%5.30%11.86%13.33%9.09%-8.33%11.11%80.00%356.50%
Dividend Yield--3.15%2.23%2.74%3.20%2.45%2.95%2.64%2.98%2.70%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,307.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)374.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,932.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)861.42538.39323.03
Cash Retained (M)3,932.463,932.463,932.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-861.42-538.39-323.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,071.043,394.083,609.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.630.700.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.710.770.82
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26.58$45.59$108.92
Upside / Downside86.14%219.26%662.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,307.114,587.074,885.235,202.775,540.955,901.116,078.14
Payout Ratio8.70%24.96%41.22%57.48%73.74%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)374.641,144.872,013.642,990.514,085.885,311.005,622.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.31%8.31%8.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,047.131,057.061,066.98
Year 2 PV (M)1,684.511,716.591,748.98
Year 3 PV (M)2,288.142,353.832,420.76
Year 4 PV (M)2,859.362,969.323,082.43
Year 5 PV (M)3,399.433,563.623,734.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,808.4071,083.5774,484.09
Equity Value (M)79,086.9782,744.0086,537.34
Shares Outstanding (M)4,871.824,871.824,871.82
Fair Value$16.23$16.98$17.76
Upside / Downside13.68%18.94%24.39%

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