DDM Analysis: 600638.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.31 - $3.60	$2.91
Multi-Stage	$5.68 - $6.25	$5.96
Blended Fair Value	$4.43
Current Price	$6.08
Upside	-27.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.29%	-5.38%	0.31	0.33	0.42	0.46	0.30	0.67	0.54	0.45	0.37	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.55%	-21.84%	-8.48%	54.86%	-55.79%	23.45%	20.11%	21.86%	-0.22%	-31.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.18%	7.30%	7.33%	7.19%	5.22%	12.69%	5.17%	3.71%	2.22%	3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	162.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)	14.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	32.54	20.34	12.20
Cash Retained (M)	14.12	14.12	14.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-32.54	-20.34	-12.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-18.42	-6.22	1.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	674.21	674.21	674.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	6.19%	6.19%	6.19%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.31	$2.91	$3.60
Upside / Downside	-62.03%	-52.21%	-40.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	162.69	161.07	159.46	157.86	156.28	154.72	159.36
Payout Ratio	91.32%	91.06%	90.79%	90.53%	90.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.57	146.66	144.77	142.91	141.07	139.25	147.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.19%	6.19%	6.19%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	136.71	138.11	139.50
Year 2 PV (M)	125.80	128.38	130.98
Year 3 PV (M)	115.75	119.33	122.98
Year 4 PV (M)	106.51	110.92	115.47
Year 5 PV (M)	98.00	103.11	108.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,247.87	3,416.99	3,593.09
Equity Value (M)	3,830.64	4,016.84	4,210.45
Shares Outstanding (M)	674.21	674.21	674.21
Fair Value	$5.68	$5.96	$6.25
Upside / Downside	-6.55%	-2.01%	2.71%

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Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600638.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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