DDM Analysis: 600616.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.17 - $0.22	$0.20
Multi-Stage	$0.28 - $0.31	$0.30
Blended Fair Value	$0.25
Current Price	$5.45
Upside	-95.46%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	77.71%	-4.50%	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	74.87%	-8.11%	-0.22%	41.79%	679.75%	-92.83%	7.29%	0.00%	0.00%	-53.74%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.96%	0.49%	0.42%	0.51%	0.33%	0.08%	0.83%	0.62%	0.39%	0.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	25.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5.17	3.23	1.94
Cash Retained (M)	23.22	23.22	23.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5.17	-3.23	-1.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)	18.05	19.99	21.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	689.54	689.54	689.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.03	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-6.77%	-5.77%	-4.77%
Fair Value	$0.17	$0.20	$0.22
Upside / Downside	-96.94%	-96.40%	-95.90%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	25.83	24.35	22.94	21.62	20.37	19.20	19.77
Payout Ratio	10.12%	26.10%	42.07%	58.05%	74.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.62	6.35	9.65	12.55	15.08	17.28	18.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	-6.77%	-5.77%	-4.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	5.72	5.78	5.84
Year 2 PV (M)	7.81	7.98	8.15
Year 3 PV (M)	9.13	9.43	9.73
Year 4 PV (M)	9.87	10.30	10.74
Year 5 PV (M)	10.17	10.73	11.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)	153.81	162.24	171.03
Equity Value (M)	196.51	206.45	216.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	689.54	689.54	689.54
Fair Value	$0.28	$0.30	$0.31
Upside / Downside	-94.77%	-94.51%	-94.23%

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Shanghai Jinfeng Wine Company Limited (600616.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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