DDM Analysis: 600609.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.10 - $1.51	$1.30
Multi-Stage	$2.77 - $3.06	$2.91
Blended Fair Value	$2.11
Current Price	$4.86
Upside	-56.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-33.64%	-24.36%	0.01	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.12	0.11	0.05	0.24	0.20	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	-54.74%	-25.67%	-12.24%	-59.95%	8.82%	111.33%	-78.19%	21.15%	25.87%	-32.21%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.23%	0.66%	0.98%	0.96%	2.62%	2.76%	1.24%	4.55%	2.43%	3.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	270.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	111.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	158.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	54.11	33.82	20.29
Cash Retained (M)	158.91	158.91	158.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-54.11	-33.82	-20.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)	104.80	125.09	138.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,303.52	1,303.52	1,303.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.18	0.19
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	-6.86%	-5.86%	-4.86%
Fair Value	$1.10	$1.30	$1.51
Upside / Downside	-77.44%	-73.16%	-68.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	270.55	254.71	239.79	225.75	212.53	200.08	206.09
Payout Ratio	41.26%	51.01%	60.76%	70.51%	80.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	111.64	129.93	145.69	159.16	170.56	180.07	190.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.25%	7.25%	7.25%
Growth Rate	-6.86%	-5.86%	-4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)	119.86	121.14	122.43
Year 2 PV (M)	123.98	126.66	129.36
Year 3 PV (M)	124.95	129.02	133.17
Year 4 PV (M)	123.52	128.91	134.47
Year 5 PV (M)	120.30	126.90	133.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,996.01	3,160.32	3,331.77
Equity Value (M)	3,608.61	3,792.94	3,984.99
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,303.52	1,303.52	1,303.52
Fair Value	$2.77	$2.91	$3.06
Upside / Downside	-43.04%	-40.13%	-37.10%

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Shenyang Jinbei Automotive Company Limited (600609.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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