Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (600362.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$151.93 - $460.93$431.96
Multi-Stage$62.39 - $68.28$65.28
Blended Fair Value$248.62
Current Price$35.49
Upside600.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.76%7.41%1.371.030.500.100.100.200.580.370.320.32
YoY Growth--32.16%106.05%400.00%0.00%-50.00%-65.44%58.63%15.71%-1.91%-51.76%
Dividend Yield--5.93%4.39%2.53%0.52%0.45%1.59%3.49%2.12%1.83%2.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,001.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,716.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,284.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,600.281,000.17600.10
Cash Retained (M)5,284.785,284.785,284.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,600.28-1,000.17-600.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,684.504,284.614,684.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,452.293,452.293,452.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.071.241.36
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.071.241.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.032.14
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$151.93$431.96$460.93
Upside / Downside328.10%1,117.14%1,198.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,001.398,521.489,075.389,665.2810,293.5210,962.6011,291.48
Payout Ratio33.95%45.16%56.37%67.58%78.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,716.613,848.425,115.886,531.868,110.309,866.3410,444.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.79%6.79%6.79%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,569.973,603.813,637.65
Year 2 PV (M)4,402.364,486.214,570.85
Year 3 PV (M)5,214.165,363.845,516.35
Year 4 PV (M)6,005.746,236.706,474.26
Year 5 PV (M)6,777.477,104.837,444.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)189,430.55198,580.11208,079.86
Equity Value (M)215,400.24225,375.50235,723.69
Shares Outstanding (M)3,452.293,452.293,452.29
Fair Value$62.39$65.28$68.28
Upside / Downside75.81%83.95%92.39%

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