DDM Analysis: 600272.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.90 - $10.25	$9.57
Multi-Stage	$4.96 - $5.46	$5.20
Blended Fair Value	$7.39
Current Price	$12.69
Upside	-41.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.25%	3.64%	0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.60%	81.03%	72.55%	-39.01%	-37.87%	-10.93%	70.52%	19.97%	-45.03%	27.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.36%	0.47%	0.30%	0.15%	0.40%	0.64%	0.53%	0.27%	0.14%	0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	13.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	10.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2.29

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2.65	1.66	0.99
Cash Retained (M)	2.29	2.29	2.29
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2.65	-1.66	-0.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-0.37	0.63	1.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	248.02	248.02	248.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.00	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.05	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	3.14%	3.14%	3.14%
Growth Rate	1.64%	2.64%	3.64%
Fair Value	$2.90	$9.57	$10.25
Upside / Downside	-77.19%	-24.59%	-19.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	13.26	13.61	13.97	14.34	14.72	15.11	15.56
Payout Ratio	82.76%	84.21%	85.66%	87.10%	88.55%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	10.98	11.46	11.97	12.49	13.03	13.60	14.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	3.14%	3.14%	3.14%
Growth Rate	1.64%	2.64%	3.64%
Year 1 PV (M)	11.01	11.11	11.22
Year 2 PV (M)	11.03	11.25	11.47
Year 3 PV (M)	11.05	11.38	11.72
Year 4 PV (M)	11.07	11.52	11.97
Year 5 PV (M)	11.09	11.65	12.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,174.22	1,233.13	1,294.39
Equity Value (M)	1,229.48	1,290.05	1,353.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	248.02	248.02	248.02
Fair Value	$4.96	$5.20	$5.46
Upside / Downside	-60.94%	-59.01%	-57.01%

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Shanghai Kai Kai Industry Company Limited (600272.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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