Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd. (600171.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$28.81 - $101.27$94.90
Multi-Stage$12.97 - $14.19$13.57
Blended Fair Value$54.23
Current Price$37.05
Upside46.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.28%18.06%0.100.200.200.130.110.050.080.020.020.02
YoY Growth---50.16%0.02%53.76%19.44%132.24%-40.43%315.32%-20.00%25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.29%1.59%0.95%0.67%0.73%0.29%0.51%0.13%0.18%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)361.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.2545.1527.09
Cash Retained (M)240.62240.62240.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.25-45.15-27.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.37195.46213.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$28.81$94.90$101.27
Upside / Downside-22.23%156.15%173.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)361.23384.71409.71436.35464.71494.91509.76
Payout Ratio33.39%44.71%56.03%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.61172.01229.58293.90365.62445.42471.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)159.26160.77162.28
Year 2 PV (M)196.80200.55204.34
Year 3 PV (M)233.27239.97246.79
Year 4 PV (M)268.69279.02289.65
Year 5 PV (M)303.07317.71332.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,037.958,426.188,829.28
Equity Value (M)9,199.049,624.2010,065.24
Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
Fair Value$12.97$13.57$14.19
Upside / Downside-65.00%-63.38%-61.70%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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