Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Chongqing road & bridge co.,ltd (600106.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - Infrastructure OperationsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.67 - $0.89$0.79
Multi-Stage$2.36 - $2.63$2.49
Blended Fair Value$1.64
Current Price$6.31
Upside-74.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.75%4.50%0.100.050.060.050.060.060.070.070.050.06
YoY Growth--109.80%-20.69%11.54%-14.63%10.00%-13.29%-4.59%30.67%-8.54%-9.89%
Dividend Yield--1.86%0.75%1.23%1.14%2.30%2.30%1.99%2.28%0.96%0.99%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)229.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)89.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)140.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)45.9628.7317.24
Cash Retained (M)140.67140.67140.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-45.96-28.73-17.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.71111.95123.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.160.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Fair Value$0.67$0.79$0.89
Upside / Downside-89.35%-87.55%-85.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)229.81203.57180.33159.74141.50125.35129.11
Payout Ratio38.79%49.03%59.27%69.51%79.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)89.1499.81106.88111.04112.86112.81119.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-12.42%-11.42%-10.42%
Year 1 PV (M)92.9193.9795.03
Year 2 PV (M)92.6294.7596.90
Year 3 PV (M)89.5792.6895.85
Year 4 PV (M)84.7488.6892.75
Year 5 PV (M)78.8583.4688.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,598.312,750.072,908.84
Equity Value (M)3,037.013,203.603,377.65
Shares Outstanding (M)1,286.011,286.011,286.01
Fair Value$2.36$2.49$2.63
Upside / Downside-62.57%-60.52%-58.38%

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