DDM Analysis: 600033.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.13 - $5.05	$3.99
Multi-Stage	$6.83 - $7.53	$7.17
Blended Fair Value	$5.58
Current Price	$3.36
Upside	66.19%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.11%	-3.57%	0.18	0.15	0.15	0.10	0.11	0.26	0.21	0.25	0.21	0.26
YoY Growth	-	-	21.16%	0.00%	50.00%	-10.02%	-57.71%	25.19%	-16.74%	22.04%	-19.62%	-1.66%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.72%	4.49%	5.15%	3.44%	4.09%	9.63%	6.05%	7.20%	5.37%	7.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	809.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	222.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)	586.35

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	161.83	101.14	60.69
Cash Retained (M)	586.35	586.35	586.35
(-) Cash Required (M)	-161.83	-101.14	-60.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)	424.52	485.21	525.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,744.40	2,744.40	2,744.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.18	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.26	0.27
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	-1.23%	-0.23%	0.77%
Fair Value	$3.13	$3.99	$5.05
Upside / Downside	-6.85%	18.89%	50.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	809.15	807.28	805.42	803.56	801.70	799.85	823.85
Payout Ratio	27.53%	40.03%	52.52%	65.01%	77.51%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	222.80	323.14	423.01	522.43	621.38	719.87	762.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	-1.23%	-0.23%	0.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	301.19	304.24	307.29
Year 2 PV (M)	367.50	374.98	382.53
Year 3 PV (M)	423.03	436.01	449.25
Year 4 PV (M)	468.98	488.26	508.13
Year 5 PV (M)	506.41	532.57	559.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)	16,688.23	17,550.32	18,447.68
Equity Value (M)	18,755.34	19,686.38	20,654.69
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,744.40	2,744.40	2,744.40
Fair Value	$6.83	$7.17	$7.53
Upside / Downside	103.39%	113.49%	123.99%

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Fujian Expressway Development Co.,Ltd (600033.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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