Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shin-Etsu Chemical Co., Ltd. (4063.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25,739.32 - $51,844.02$48,585.44
Multi-Stage$7,897.11 - $8,649.84$8,266.54
Blended Fair Value$28,425.99
Current Price$4,772.00
Upside495.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS18.56%17.00%103.34106.6398.6260.8246.1544.1237.6826.9124.7322.57
YoY Growth---3.09%8.13%62.15%31.79%4.59%17.09%40.06%8.81%9.54%5.04%
Dividend Yield--2.17%1.71%2.07%1.99%1.24%1.75%1.83%1.36%1.21%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)516,429.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103,800.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)412,629.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103,285.8064,553.6338,732.18
Cash Retained (M)412,629.00412,629.00412,629.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-103,285.80-64,553.63-38,732.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)309,343.20348,075.38373,896.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
LTM Dividend per Share52.4052.4052.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share156.15175.70188.74
(=) Adjusted Dividend208.55228.10241.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25,739.32$48,585.44$51,844.02
Upside / Downside439.38%918.14%986.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)516,429.00549,996.89585,746.68623,820.22664,368.53707,552.49728,779.06
Payout Ratio20.10%34.08%48.06%62.04%76.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103,800.00187,437.04281,508.34387,016.99505,052.38636,797.24674,120.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)174,582.69176,237.50177,892.31
Year 2 PV (M)244,220.88248,872.60253,568.21
Year 3 PV (M)312,728.39321,705.70330,853.19
Year 4 PV (M)380,118.91394,737.21409,773.14
Year 5 PV (M)446,405.96467,967.53490,354.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,086,398.6414,766,776.9615,473,194.96
Equity Value (M)15,644,455.4616,376,297.5017,135,636.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,981.031,981.031,981.03
Fair Value$7,897.11$8,266.54$8,649.84
Upside / Downside65.49%73.23%81.26%

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