Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Saudi Ground Services Company (4031.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.62 - $14.54$12.60
Multi-Stage$28.22 - $31.18$29.67
Blended Fair Value$21.14
Current Price$46.56
Upside-54.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.15%-5.50%1.000.000.000.000.001.801.953.251.812.14
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-7.69%-40.00%79.56%-15.31%21.76%
Dividend Yield--1.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%7.85%6.70%8.85%3.53%5.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)394.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)188.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)205.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.8549.2829.57
Cash Retained (M)205.67205.67205.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.85-49.28-29.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.81156.38176.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.670.830.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.681.841.94
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Fair Value$10.62$12.60$14.54
Upside / Downside-77.19%-72.93%-68.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)394.26368.63344.67322.26301.31281.72290.17
Payout Ratio47.84%56.27%64.70%73.13%81.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)188.60207.42223.00235.68245.77253.55268.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-7.50%-6.50%-5.50%
Year 1 PV (M)191.58193.65195.72
Year 2 PV (M)190.24194.38198.56
Year 3 PV (M)185.70191.79198.01
Year 4 PV (M)178.86186.72194.84
Year 5 PV (M)170.43179.85189.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,389.474,631.934,884.98
Equity Value (M)5,306.305,578.335,861.79
Shares Outstanding (M)188.00188.00188.00
Fair Value$28.22$29.67$31.18
Upside / Downside-39.38%-36.27%-33.03%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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