DDM Analysis: 3050.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.49 - $8.81	$7.68
Multi-Stage	$21.33 - $23.62	$22.45
Blended Fair Value	$15.06
Current Price	$28.72
Upside	-47.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-9.52%	-13.70%	1.37	0.86	2.01	3.73	4.52	2.26	1.51	3.29	5.97	5.40
YoY Growth	-	-	59.07%	-57.09%	-46.22%	-17.52%	100.23%	49.32%	-54.08%	-44.85%	10.59%	-9.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.04%	2.19%	4.01%	5.29%	5.14%	4.14%	3.29%	6.87%	9.52%	7.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	193.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	103.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)	90.55

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	38.74	24.22	14.53
Cash Retained (M)	90.55	90.55	90.55
(-) Cash Required (M)	-38.74	-24.22	-14.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)	51.81	66.34	76.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	140.00	140.00	140.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.37	0.47	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	0.74	0.74	0.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.37	0.47	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.11	1.21	1.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-9.17%	-8.17%	-7.17%
Fair Value	$6.49	$7.68	$8.81
Upside / Downside	-77.39%	-73.27%	-69.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	193.72	177.90	163.37	150.03	137.77	126.52	130.32
Payout Ratio	53.26%	60.61%	67.95%	75.30%	82.65%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	103.17	107.82	111.02	112.97	113.87	113.87	120.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-9.17%	-8.17%	-7.17%
Year 1 PV (M)	100.31	101.41	102.52
Year 2 PV (M)	96.09	98.22	100.37
Year 3 PV (M)	90.98	94.01	97.12
Year 4 PV (M)	85.31	89.13	93.08
Year 5 PV (M)	79.37	83.83	88.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,533.82	2,676.41	2,825.34
Equity Value (M)	2,985.88	3,143.01	3,306.91
Shares Outstanding (M)	140.00	140.00	140.00
Fair Value	$21.33	$22.45	$23.62
Upside / Downside	-25.74%	-21.83%	-17.75%

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Southern Province Cement Company (3050.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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