Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Hongxin Technology Co Ltd (301539.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$68.12 - $80.30$75.23
Multi-Stage$44.99 - $49.52$47.21
Blended Fair Value$61.22
Current Price$19.27
Upside217.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS38.54%0.00%0.210.010.010.080.030.040.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--1,356.35%14.50%-84.22%164.67%-26.74%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.94%0.04%0.04%0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)61.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)43.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.227.644.58
Cash Retained (M)43.6843.6843.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.22-7.64-4.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.4636.0439.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)146.68146.68146.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.39
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Fair Value$68.12$75.23$80.30
Upside / Downside253.49%290.41%316.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)61.1163.0665.0767.1469.2871.4873.63
Payout Ratio28.52%40.82%53.11%65.41%77.70%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.4325.7434.5643.9253.8364.3468.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate0.31%0.31%0.31%
Growth Rate2.18%3.18%4.18%
Year 1 PV (M)25.4125.6625.91
Year 2 PV (M)33.6834.3435.01
Year 3 PV (M)42.2543.5144.78
Year 4 PV (M)51.1353.1655.25
Year 5 PV (M)60.3363.3466.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,386.416,705.087,036.34
Equity Value (M)6,599.226,925.097,263.77
Shares Outstanding (M)146.68146.68146.68
Fair Value$44.99$47.21$49.52
Upside / Downside133.47%145.00%156.98%

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