Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Career International Co., Ltd. (300662.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.06 - $23.46$18.94
Multi-Stage$12.42 - $13.53$12.96
Blended Fair Value$15.95
Current Price$28.52
Upside-44.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.40%0.01%0.230.190.220.130.160.130.080.000.110.09
YoY Growth--20.66%-13.78%76.29%-20.44%22.97%65.16%0.00%-100.00%21.45%-62.27%
Dividend Yield--0.67%0.92%0.50%0.27%0.31%0.39%0.19%0.00%1.13%0.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)289.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.22
(=) Cash Retained (M)239.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.9736.2321.74
Cash Retained (M)239.61239.61239.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.97-36.23-21.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)181.65203.38217.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)197.86197.86197.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.031.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.031.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.171.281.36
WACC / Discount Rate13.71%13.71%13.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.06$18.94$23.46
Upside / Downside-47.18%-33.60%-17.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)289.84308.68328.74350.11372.86397.10409.01
Payout Ratio17.33%31.86%46.40%60.93%75.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.2298.35152.52213.32281.38357.39378.34

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate13.71%13.71%13.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85.6886.4987.31
Year 2 PV (M)115.76117.97120.19
Year 3 PV (M)141.05145.10149.23
Year 4 PV (M)162.09168.32174.73
Year 5 PV (M)179.35188.01197.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,773.111,858.751,947.67
Equity Value (M)2,457.042,564.642,676.13
Shares Outstanding (M)197.86197.86197.86
Fair Value$12.42$12.96$13.53
Upside / Downside-56.46%-54.55%-52.57%

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