DDM Analysis: 300509.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.51 - $5.70	$4.50
Multi-Stage	$7.16 - $7.87	$7.51
Blended Fair Value	$6.00
Current Price	$9.08
Upside	-33.89%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.22%	0.00%	0.13	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.13	0.13	0.16	0.12	0.08	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	13.68%	2.63%	-15.49%	1.13%	6.53%	-20.83%	33.33%	50.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.74%	2.13%	1.80%	1.92%	2.20%	2.10%	1.91%	1.50%	0.59%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	97.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	64.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)	32.75

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.50	12.19	7.31
Cash Retained (M)	32.75	32.75	32.75
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.50	-12.19	-7.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.25	20.57	25.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	300.77	300.77	300.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.26	0.28	0.30
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.78%	0.22%	1.22%
Fair Value	$3.51	$4.50	$5.70
Upside / Downside	-61.31%	-50.49%	-37.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	97.52	97.73	97.94	98.15	98.36	98.57	101.53
Payout Ratio	66.41%	71.13%	75.85%	80.56%	85.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	64.76	69.51	74.28	79.07	83.88	88.71	93.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	-0.78%	0.22%	1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)	64.59	65.24	65.90
Year 2 PV (M)	64.14	65.44	66.76
Year 3 PV (M)	63.45	65.39	67.36
Year 4 PV (M)	62.55	65.11	67.74
Year 5 PV (M)	61.47	64.63	67.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,838.51	1,933.05	2,031.44
Equity Value (M)	2,154.72	2,258.87	2,367.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	300.77	300.77	300.77
Fair Value	$7.16	$7.51	$7.87
Upside / Downside	-21.10%	-17.29%	-13.32%

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Jiangsu Newamstar Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd (300509.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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