Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Yinghe Technology Co., Ltd (300457.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.10 - $96.01$35.94
Multi-Stage$10.03 - $10.98$10.50
Blended Fair Value$23.22
Current Price$34.49
Upside-32.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.90%38.28%0.180.220.100.070.100.080.110.100.020.01
YoY Growth---19.83%114.09%56.46%-30.75%17.38%-27.87%15.25%436.71%59.59%64.41%
Dividend Yield--0.90%1.47%0.54%0.24%0.59%0.23%0.65%0.55%0.10%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)309.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)38.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)270.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)61.9038.6923.21
Cash Retained (M)270.71270.71270.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-61.90-38.69-23.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)208.81232.02247.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)641.05641.05641.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.360.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.420.45
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.10$35.94$96.01
Upside / Downside-47.53%4.21%178.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)309.48329.60351.02373.84398.14424.02436.74
Payout Ratio12.53%28.02%43.52%59.01%74.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)38.7792.36152.75220.61296.64381.62403.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.75%7.75%7.75%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)84.9185.7286.52
Year 2 PV (M)129.11131.57134.05
Year 3 PV (M)171.42176.34181.35
Year 4 PV (M)211.90220.05228.43
Year 5 PV (M)250.62262.73275.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,583.495,853.176,133.18
Equity Value (M)6,431.456,729.577,038.83
Shares Outstanding (M)641.05641.05641.05
Fair Value$10.03$10.50$10.98
Upside / Downside-70.91%-69.56%-68.16%

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