Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Boya Bio-pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd. (300294.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.77 - $123.49$39.80
Multi-Stage$13.19 - $14.41$13.79
Blended Fair Value$26.80
Current Price$24.66
Upside8.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.70%19.88%0.460.270.170.090.180.190.200.080.110.09
YoY Growth--72.28%62.16%80.74%-48.17%-6.10%-7.00%157.09%-28.16%16.86%24.33%
Dividend Yield--1.72%0.93%0.47%0.31%0.63%0.60%0.66%0.23%0.26%0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)327.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)161.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)165.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)65.4540.9124.54
Cash Retained (M)165.44165.44165.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-65.45-40.91-24.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)99.99124.53140.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)502.73502.73502.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.60
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.77$39.80$123.49
Upside / Downside-11.74%61.39%400.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)327.25348.52371.17395.30421.00448.36461.81
Payout Ratio49.45%57.56%65.67%73.78%81.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)161.81200.60243.74291.65344.75403.52427.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.02%8.02%8.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)183.96185.70187.44
Year 2 PV (M)204.97208.88212.82
Year 3 PV (M)224.91231.36237.94
Year 4 PV (M)243.80253.18262.82
Year 5 PV (M)261.69274.32287.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,513.815,780.136,056.64
Equity Value (M)6,633.136,933.577,245.11
Shares Outstanding (M)502.73502.73502.73
Fair Value$13.19$13.79$14.41
Upside / Downside-46.50%-44.07%-41.56%

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