DDM Analysis: 300219.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.01 - $17.70	$16.58
Multi-Stage	$10.00 - $11.02	$10.50
Blended Fair Value	$13.54
Current Price	$7.45
Upside	81.72%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.39%	29.68%	0.14	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.33	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	174.54%	21.06%	95.27%	26.49%	-94.72%	272.85%	85.24%	18.72%	113.95%	76.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.11%	0.73%	0.54%	0.23%	0.18%	4.71%	1.01%	0.39%	0.32%	0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	65.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	32.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)	33.37

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	13.20	8.25	4.95
Cash Retained (M)	33.37	33.37	33.37
(-) Cash Required (M)	-13.20	-8.25	-4.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	20.18	25.13	28.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	712.50	712.50	712.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.04	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.09
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.49%	-0.49%	-0.49%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Fair Value	$15.01	$16.58	$17.70
Upside / Downside	101.45%	122.51%	137.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	65.98	67.49	69.04	70.62	72.24	73.89	76.11
Payout Ratio	49.42%	57.53%	65.65%	73.77%	81.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	32.61	38.83	45.32	52.09	59.15	66.50	70.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	-0.49%	-0.49%	-0.49%
Growth Rate	1.29%	2.29%	3.29%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.64	39.02	39.40
Year 2 PV (M)	44.88	45.77	46.67
Year 3 PV (M)	51.33	52.86	54.43
Year 4 PV (M)	57.99	60.32	62.71
Year 5 PV (M)	64.88	68.15	71.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)	6,868.41	7,214.21	7,573.80
Equity Value (M)	7,126.13	7,480.33	7,848.56
Shares Outstanding (M)	712.50	712.50	712.50
Fair Value	$10.00	$10.50	$11.02
Upside / Downside	34.25%	40.92%	47.86%

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Hongli Zhihui Group Co.,Ltd. (300219.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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