Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xuzhou Handler Special Vehicle Co., Ltd (300201.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.94 - $15.54$9.05
Multi-Stage$22.64 - $25.03$23.81
Blended Fair Value$16.43
Current Price$5.51
Upside198.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.00%0.00%0.040.010.010.020.050.060.060.040.030.00
YoY Growth--532.47%-18.78%-60.59%-57.09%-24.15%4.00%39.52%67.97%611.69%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.76%0.14%0.21%0.62%1.87%1.97%1.03%0.72%0.30%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)266.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)230.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.4033.3720.02
Cash Retained (M)230.57230.57230.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.40-33.37-20.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.17197.19210.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)966.81966.81966.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.200.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.26
WACC / Discount Rate1.64%1.64%1.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.94$9.05$15.54
Upside / Downside7.83%64.20%182.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)266.98264.31261.67259.05256.46253.89261.51
Payout Ratio13.64%28.91%44.18%59.46%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.4176.41115.61154.02191.65228.50241.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.64%1.64%1.64%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)74.4275.1875.94
Year 2 PV (M)109.65111.90114.18
Year 3 PV (M)142.27146.67151.16
Year 4 PV (M)172.40179.55186.91
Year 5 PV (M)200.19210.61221.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,192.3622,295.8923,444.93
Equity Value (M)21,891.2923,019.8024,194.58
Shares Outstanding (M)966.81966.81966.81
Fair Value$22.64$23.81$25.03
Upside / Downside310.94%332.12%354.18%

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