Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Conant Optical Co., Ltd. (2276.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.45 - $22.66$18.92
Multi-Stage$26.96 - $29.65$28.28
Blended Fair Value$23.60
Current Price$34.12
Upside-30.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS-18.55%0.00%0.310.150.080.350.000.860.970.000.000.00
YoY Growth--108.75%76.47%-75.74%0.00%-100.00%-10.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.32%2.29%2.01%9.47%0.00%21.24%24.28%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)869.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)672.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)173.92108.7065.22
Cash Retained (M)672.03672.03672.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-173.92-108.70-65.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)498.11563.33606.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)432.14432.14432.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.151.301.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.460.460.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.151.301.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.611.761.86
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.45$18.92$22.66
Upside / Downside-54.73%-44.55%-33.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)869.60860.90852.29843.77835.33826.98851.79
Payout Ratio22.72%36.18%49.63%63.09%76.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.57311.43423.01532.31639.39744.28787.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.21%8.21%8.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)284.89287.80290.70
Year 2 PV (M)353.97361.23368.56
Year 3 PV (M)407.47420.07432.93
Year 4 PV (M)447.72466.28485.40
Year 5 PV (M)476.74501.57527.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,680.4810,184.5710,709.44
Equity Value (M)11,651.2812,221.5112,814.46
Shares Outstanding (M)432.14432.14432.14
Fair Value$26.96$28.28$29.65
Upside / Downside-20.98%-17.11%-13.09%

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