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Definitive Analysis

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West China Cement Limited (2233.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.43 - $6.38$4.64
Multi-Stage$5.80 - $6.37$6.08
Blended Fair Value$5.36
Current Price$1.38
Upside288.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.46%3.27%0.020.070.090.120.060.050.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth---65.57%-22.99%-28.01%94.17%23.60%27.76%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-90.07%
Dividend Yield--1.55%10.85%10.69%10.67%6.42%4.41%4.23%0.00%0.00%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,263.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)489.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)773.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)252.71157.9594.77
Cash Retained (M)773.71773.71773.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-252.71-157.95-94.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)520.99615.76678.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,451.155,451.155,451.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Fair Value$3.43$4.64$6.38
Upside / Downside148.43%236.01%362.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,263.561,287.071,311.011,335.401,360.251,385.561,427.12
Payout Ratio38.77%49.01%59.26%69.51%79.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)489.86630.85776.92928.201,084.851,247.001,320.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate0.86%1.86%2.86%
Year 1 PV (M)587.55593.37599.20
Year 2 PV (M)673.92687.35700.91
Year 3 PV (M)749.88772.41795.38
Year 4 PV (M)816.28849.13882.97
Year 5 PV (M)873.88918.07964.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,898.8529,309.5930,776.83
Equity Value (M)31,600.3633,129.9234,719.32
Shares Outstanding (M)5,451.155,451.155,451.15
Fair Value$5.80$6.08$6.37
Upside / Downside320.07%340.41%361.53%

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