Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Kuehne + Nagel International AG (0QMW.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$264.74 - $853.18$428.14
Multi-Stage$278.53 - $304.69$291.37
Blended Fair Value$359.76
Current Price$256.63
Upside40.18%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.48%5.36%9.9513.999.994.534.026.055.795.545.044.04
YoY Growth---28.84%40.05%120.45%12.55%-33.43%4.36%4.56%9.85%24.94%-31.61%
Dividend Yield--3.88%5.45%3.67%1.71%1.49%4.55%4.19%3.68%3.62%2.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,199.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,182.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)239.80149.8889.93
Cash Retained (M)17.0017.0017.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-239.80-149.88-89.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)-222.80-132.88-72.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.77118.77118.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.88-1.12-0.61
LTM Dividend per Share9.959.959.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.88-1.12-0.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.088.839.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Fair Value$264.74$428.14$853.18
Upside / Downside3.16%66.83%232.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,199.001,251.321,305.921,362.901,422.371,484.431,528.97
Payout Ratio98.58%96.87%95.15%93.43%91.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,182.001,212.101,242.571,273.401,304.551,335.991,414.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.52%6.52%6.52%
Growth Rate3.36%4.36%5.36%
Year 1 PV (M)1,127.041,137.941,148.85
Year 2 PV (M)1,074.301,095.181,116.27
Year 3 PV (M)1,023.691,053.691,084.27
Year 4 PV (M)975.131,013.421,052.82
Year 5 PV (M)928.56974.351,021.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,952.1829,330.7330,763.13
Equity Value (M)33,080.8934,605.3136,187.28
Shares Outstanding (M)118.77118.77118.77
Fair Value$278.53$291.37$304.69
Upside / Downside8.54%13.54%18.73%

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