Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shougang Century Holdings Limited (0103.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.07 - $3.21$2.59
Multi-Stage$4.74 - $5.22$4.98
Blended Fair Value$3.79
Current Price$2.35
Upside61.06%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.050.030.070.070.050.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--36.10%-51.34%3.83%49.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.18%2.82%6.38%3.91%4.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)92.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.5511.606.96
Cash Retained (M)58.7958.7958.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.55-11.60-6.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.2447.1951.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)421.49421.49421.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.07$2.59$3.21
Upside / Downside-12.06%10.39%36.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)92.7691.8490.9290.0189.1188.2290.86
Payout Ratio36.62%47.30%57.97%68.65%79.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.9743.4452.7161.7970.6879.4084.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4340.8441.26
Year 2 PV (M)45.6746.6047.55
Year 3 PV (M)49.8351.3752.94
Year 4 PV (M)53.0655.2657.52
Year 5 PV (M)55.4758.3661.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,753.521,844.831,939.90
Equity Value (M)1,997.972,097.262,200.54
Shares Outstanding (M)421.49421.49421.49
Fair Value$4.74$4.98$5.22
Upside / Downside101.71%111.74%122.16%

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