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Definitive Analysis

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Otoki Corporation (007310.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,086,511.68 - $5,889,894.35$5,519,693.58
Multi-Stage$916,013.19 - $1,003,019.90$958,715.48
Blended Fair Value$3,239,204.53
Current Price$410,500.00
Upside689.09%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.96%10.64%9,519.209,562.407,818.177,864.527,166.727,473.637,072.716,318.255,175.943,957.71
YoY Growth---0.45%22.31%-0.59%9.74%-4.11%5.67%11.94%22.07%30.78%14.24%
Dividend Yield--2.30%2.36%1.75%1.76%1.26%1.57%0.93%0.89%0.68%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101,079.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,719.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)70,359.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20,215.9212,634.957,580.97
Cash Retained (M)70,359.6870,359.6870,359.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-20,215.92-12,634.95-7,580.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)50,143.7557,724.7262,778.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3.413.413.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share14,691.9916,913.1918,394.00
LTM Dividend per Share9,000.869,000.869,000.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share14,691.9916,913.1918,394.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend23,692.8525,914.0527,394.86
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,086,511.68$5,519,693.58$5,889,894.35
Upside / Downside651.89%1,244.63%1,334.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101,079.62107,649.80114,647.03122,099.09130,035.53138,487.84142,642.47
Payout Ratio30.39%42.31%54.24%66.16%78.08%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,719.9445,550.3562,178.9380,776.77101,529.62124,639.06131,944.29

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)42,444.4742,846.7943,249.11
Year 2 PV (M)53,988.5955,016.9256,054.95
Year 3 PV (M)65,354.3667,230.4569,142.10
Year 4 PV (M)76,543.8379,487.4982,515.25
Year 5 PV (M)87,559.0491,788.1796,179.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,800,462.722,935,726.113,076,166.36
Equity Value (M)3,126,353.013,272,095.943,423,306.93
Shares Outstanding (M)3.413.413.41
Fair Value$916,013.19$958,715.48$1,003,019.90
Upside / Downside123.15%133.55%144.34%

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