Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chongqing Shunbo Aluminum Co.,Ltd. (002996.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.93 - $40.98$38.40
Multi-Stage$6.31 - $6.90$6.60
Blended Fair Value$22.50
Current Price$7.90
Upside184.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS21.41%7.99%0.170.120.130.140.030.060.080.080.050.09
YoY Growth--44.38%-8.33%-5.19%329.37%-51.04%-15.19%-1.80%46.18%-37.79%7.96%
Dividend Yield--2.43%1.60%1.29%1.41%0.18%0.69%0.82%0.83%0.57%0.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)145.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.65
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.1518.2210.93
Cash Retained (M)46.0946.0946.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.15-18.22-10.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.9427.8735.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)707.36707.36707.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.180.19
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$18.93$38.40$40.98
Upside / Downside139.65%386.07%418.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)145.74155.21165.30176.05187.49199.68205.67
Payout Ratio68.38%72.70%77.03%81.35%85.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.65112.84127.33143.22160.63179.71190.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)105.04106.04107.03
Year 2 PV (M)110.33112.43114.55
Year 3 PV (M)115.52118.83122.21
Year 4 PV (M)120.61125.25130.02
Year 5 PV (M)125.60131.67137.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,889.584,077.454,272.51
Equity Value (M)4,466.684,671.674,884.29
Shares Outstanding (M)707.36707.36707.36
Fair Value$6.31$6.60$6.90
Upside / Downside-20.07%-16.40%-12.60%

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