DDM Analysis: 002928.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.14 - $32.01	$17.45
Multi-Stage	$10.30 - $11.28	$10.78
Blended Fair Value	$14.11
Current Price	$10.02
Upside	40.84%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.72%	26.88%	0.16	0.16	0.13	0.15	0.13	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.30%	20.91%	-11.01%	12.70%	9.25%	23.40%	128.43%	255.29%	-68.49%	159.43%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	2.68%	1.13%	1.44%	0.82%	1.40%	1.00%	0.25%	0.09%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	581.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	155.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)	425.25

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	116.24	72.65	43.59
Cash Retained (M)	425.25	425.25	425.25
(-) Cash Required (M)	-116.24	-72.65	-43.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	309.00	352.60	381.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.24	0.28	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.36	0.40	0.42
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Fair Value	$11.14	$17.45	$32.01
Upside / Downside	11.15%	74.11%	219.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	581.22	608.68	637.43	667.54	699.07	732.09	754.05
Payout Ratio	26.84%	39.47%	52.10%	64.73%	77.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	155.98	240.24	332.11	432.13	540.85	658.88	697.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.11%	7.11%	7.11%
Growth Rate	3.72%	4.72%	5.72%
Year 1 PV (M)	222.14	224.28	226.42
Year 2 PV (M)	283.96	289.46	295.02
Year 3 PV (M)	341.65	351.62	361.79
Year 4 PV (M)	395.40	410.87	426.79
Year 5 PV (M)	445.40	467.29	490.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)	11,462.62	12,025.94	12,611.19
Equity Value (M)	13,151.17	13,769.46	14,411.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,277.41	1,277.41	1,277.41
Fair Value	$10.30	$10.78	$11.28
Upside / Downside	2.75%	7.58%	12.59%

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MRBK	Meridian Corporation	2.85%	$0.49	27.85%
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TSBK	Timberland Bancorp, Inc.	2.84%	$1.00	27.24%
CATY	Cathay General Bancorp	2.83%	$1.38	31.20%
CWT	California Water Service Group	2.83%	$1.22	53.25%
EBIX	Ebix, Inc.	2.83%	$0.08	46.85%
CMS-PB	Consumers Energy Company	2.82%	$2.17	62.27%
EPRT	Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc.	2.82%	$0.85	70.58%
GPK	Graphic Packaging Holding Company	2.82%	$0.43	24.85%
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CCNE	CNB Financial Corporation	2.81%	$0.72	35.05%
ORRF	Orrstown Financial Services, Inc.	2.81%	$0.98	26.05%
TXNM	TXNM Energy, Inc.	2.80%	$1.65	86.75%
STC	Stewart Information Services Corporation	2.79%	$1.95	54.56%
CVLY	Codorus Valley Bancorp, Inc.	2.77%	$0.67	28.98%
KKRS	KKR Group Finance Co. IX LLC 4.	2.77%	$0.49	7.61%
SHBI	Shore Bancshares, Inc.	2.77%	$0.48	28.28%
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MTDR	Matador Resources Company	2.74%	$1.19	18.96%
OFG	OFG Bancorp	2.74%	$1.12	25.13%
VLO	Valero Energy Corporation	2.74%	$4.53	93.65%
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PBHC	Pathfinder Bancorp, Inc.	2.71%	$0.38	26.39%
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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Express Airlines Co.,LTD (002928.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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