DDM Analysis: 002836.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.75 - $2.51	$2.12
Multi-Stage	$5.08 - $5.60	$5.34
Blended Fair Value	$3.73
Current Price	$9.81
Upside	-62.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-22.54%	-6.13%	0.10	0.34	0.07	0.22	0.07	0.36	0.18	0.07	0.13	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	-70.95%	380.00%	-66.67%	200.00%	-80.00%	100.00%	150.00%	-46.67%	-16.67%	-14.29%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.27%	4.91%	0.86%	2.99%	1.17%	5.13%	1.58%	0.58%	0.53%	3.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	56.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	55.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11.40	7.12	4.27
Cash Retained (M)	1.22	1.22	1.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11.40	-7.12	-4.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-10.18	-5.91	-3.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	223.18	223.18	223.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.25	0.25	0.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-4.82%	-3.82%	-2.82%
Fair Value	$1.75	$2.12	$2.51
Upside / Downside	-82.21%	-78.40%	-74.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	56.99	54.81	52.72	50.70	48.76	46.90	48.31
Payout Ratio	97.86%	96.29%	94.72%	93.15%	91.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	55.77	52.78	49.93	47.23	44.65	42.21	44.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.32%	6.32%	6.32%
Growth Rate	-4.82%	-3.82%	-2.82%
Year 1 PV (M)	49.13	49.64	50.16
Year 2 PV (M)	43.26	44.17	45.10
Year 3 PV (M)	38.09	39.30	40.54
Year 4 PV (M)	33.52	34.95	36.43
Year 5 PV (M)	29.49	31.07	32.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	941.18	991.68	1,044.32
Equity Value (M)	1,134.67	1,190.82	1,249.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	223.18	223.18	223.18
Fair Value	$5.08	$5.34	$5.60
Upside / Downside	-48.17%	-45.61%	-42.94%

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Guangdong New Grand Long Packing Co., Ltd. (002836.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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