DDM Analysis: 002729.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.70 - $4.52	$3.50
Multi-Stage	$2.78 - $3.04	$2.91
Blended Fair Value	$3.20
Current Price	$14.38
Upside	-77.73%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	5.07%	-12.07%	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.07
YoY Growth	-	-	141.07%	-33.62%	40.00%	-42.86%	0.00%	-30.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-50.00%	-38.33%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.24%	0.09%	0.09%	0.07%	0.16%	0.18%	0.34%	0.27%	0.12%	0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	5.86
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.32	5.20	3.12
Cash Retained (M)	35.74	35.74	35.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.32	-5.20	-3.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)	27.42	30.54	32.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	187.90	187.90	187.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.15	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	3.07%	4.07%	5.07%
Fair Value	$2.70	$3.50	$4.52
Upside / Downside	-81.23%	-75.67%	-68.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.60	43.29	45.05	46.88	48.78	50.77	52.29
Payout Ratio	14.08%	29.27%	44.45%	59.63%	74.82%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	5.86	12.67	20.02	27.95	36.50	45.69	48.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	3.07%	4.07%	5.07%
Year 1 PV (M)	11.42	11.53	11.65
Year 2 PV (M)	16.28	16.60	16.92
Year 3 PV (M)	20.50	21.10	21.72
Year 4 PV (M)	24.13	25.09	26.06
Year 5 PV (M)	27.25	28.59	29.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)	422.44	443.34	465.05
Equity Value (M)	522.03	546.25	571.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	187.90	187.90	187.90
Fair Value	$2.78	$2.91	$3.04
Upside / Downside	-80.68%	-79.78%	-78.85%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

Hollyland (China) Electronics Technology Corporation Limited (002729.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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