DDM Analysis: 002707.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.26 - $0.35	$0.30
Multi-Stage	$0.62 - $0.68	$0.65
Blended Fair Value	$0.48
Current Price	$7.36
Upside	-93.52%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-18.28%	8.39%	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.07	0.08	0.05	0.06	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-21.11%	-18.51%	-14.48%	-13.88%	-23.04%	-9.21%	49.11%	-4.28%	141.45%	96.36%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.34%	0.49%	0.44%	0.65%	0.88%	1.58%	0.98%	0.43%	0.37%	0.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	49.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	14.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)	35.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.89	6.18	3.71
Cash Retained (M)	35.39	35.39	35.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.89	-6.18	-3.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)	25.50	29.21	31.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	991.97	991.97	991.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	7.44%	7.44%	7.44%
Growth Rate	-7.08%	-6.08%	-5.08%
Fair Value	$0.26	$0.30	$0.35
Upside / Downside	-96.53%	-95.88%	-95.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	49.44	46.43	43.61	40.96	38.47	36.14	37.22
Payout Ratio	28.41%	40.73%	53.05%	65.37%	77.68%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	14.05	18.91	23.14	26.78	29.89	32.52	34.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.44%	7.44%	7.44%
Growth Rate	-7.08%	-6.08%	-5.08%
Year 1 PV (M)	17.42	17.60	17.79
Year 2 PV (M)	19.62	20.04	20.47
Year 3 PV (M)	20.91	21.59	22.28
Year 4 PV (M)	21.49	22.43	23.40
Year 5 PV (M)	21.53	22.71	23.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)	512.90	541.10	570.52
Equity Value (M)	613.85	645.47	678.41
Shares Outstanding (M)	991.97	991.97	991.97
Fair Value	$0.62	$0.65	$0.68
Upside / Downside	-91.59%	-91.16%	-90.71%

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UTour Group Co., Ltd. (002707.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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