Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong TCL Smart Home Appliances Co., Ltd. (002668.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.57 - $68.36$39.20
Multi-Stage$16.99 - $18.59$17.78
Blended Fair Value$28.49
Current Price$9.66
Upside194.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-42.52%-7.24%0.020.030.030.080.350.270.220.140.050.04
YoY Growth---38.86%-10.96%-61.25%-76.98%29.23%23.90%55.80%183.84%14.09%20.19%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.34%0.49%1.68%5.39%5.99%3.02%0.53%0.20%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,171.53
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,161.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)234.31146.4487.86
Cash Retained (M)1,161.671,161.671,161.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-234.31-146.44-87.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)927.371,015.231,073.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.161,081.161,081.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.860.940.99
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.860.940.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.00
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.57$39.20$68.36
Upside / Downside164.73%305.76%607.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,171.531,247.681,328.771,415.141,507.131,605.091,653.25
Payout Ratio0.84%18.67%36.50%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.85232.98485.06768.941,087.671,444.581,529.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.08%9.08%9.08%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)211.59213.59215.60
Year 2 PV (M)400.08407.70415.39
Year 3 PV (M)575.98592.52609.37
Year 4 PV (M)739.93768.38797.65
Year 5 PV (M)892.50935.61980.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,549.4316,300.4717,080.26
Equity Value (M)18,369.5019,218.2720,098.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,081.161,081.161,081.16
Fair Value$16.99$17.78$18.59
Upside / Downside75.89%84.01%92.44%

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