DDM Analysis: 002642.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.13 - $0.17	$0.15
Multi-Stage	$0.27 - $0.29	$0.28
Blended Fair Value	$0.21
Current Price	$9.36
Upside	-97.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-16.57%	-1.96%	0.02	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-42.71%	55.20%	86.71%	-39.15%	-59.99%	-37.34%	224.61%	-40.19%	-47.01%	214.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.20%	0.39%	0.19%	0.15%	0.33%	0.57%	0.83%	0.14%	0.13%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	24.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)	17.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4.81	3.00	1.80
Cash Retained (M)	17.13	17.13	17.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4.81	-3.00	-1.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	12.33	14.13	15.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	671.59	671.59	671.59
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.03	0.03	0.03
WACC / Discount Rate	9.01%	9.01%	9.01%
Growth Rate	-11.10%	-10.10%	-9.10%
Fair Value	$0.13	$0.15	$0.17
Upside / Downside	-98.65%	-98.43%	-98.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	24.03	21.61	19.43	17.47	15.70	14.12	14.54
Payout Ratio	28.71%	40.97%	53.22%	65.48%	77.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.90	8.85	10.34	11.44	12.21	12.71	13.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.01%	9.01%	9.01%
Growth Rate	-11.10%	-10.10%	-9.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	8.03	8.12	8.21
Year 2 PV (M)	8.51	8.70	8.90
Year 3 PV (M)	8.54	8.83	9.13
Year 4 PV (M)	8.27	8.65	9.04
Year 5 PV (M)	7.81	8.25	8.72
PV of Terminal Value (M)	137.54	145.45	153.72
Equity Value (M)	178.68	188.00	197.71
Shares Outstanding (M)	671.59	671.59	671.59
Fair Value	$0.27	$0.28	$0.29
Upside / Downside	-97.16%	-97.01%	-96.85%

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Ronglian Group Ltd. (002642.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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