DDM Analysis: 002522.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.00 - $5.42	$3.08
Multi-Stage	$2.02 - $2.21	$2.11
Blended Fair Value	$2.59
Current Price	$4.72
Upside	-45.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.22%	-0.71%	0.07	0.07	0.07	0.12	0.12	0.08	0.10	0.12	0.05	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.91%	-1.58%	-41.40%	1.02%	47.04%	-11.99%	-22.58%	155.41%	-18.16%	-22.95%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.52%	1.69%	1.32%	2.17%	2.00%	1.46%	1.60%	1.17%	0.25%	0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	77.27
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	44.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	33.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	15.45	9.66	5.80
Cash Retained (M)	33.07	33.07	33.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-15.45	-9.66	-5.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17.62	23.41	27.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	905.78	905.78	905.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.03	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.07	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	3.45%	4.45%	5.45%
Fair Value	$2.00	$3.08	$5.42
Upside / Downside	-57.69%	-34.84%	14.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	77.27	80.71	84.30	88.05	91.97	96.06	98.94
Payout Ratio	57.20%	63.76%	70.32%	76.88%	83.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	44.20	51.46	59.28	67.69	76.74	86.45	91.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.98%	6.98%	6.98%
Growth Rate	3.45%	4.45%	5.45%
Year 1 PV (M)	47.64	48.10	48.56
Year 2 PV (M)	50.80	51.79	52.79
Year 3 PV (M)	53.71	55.28	56.88
Year 4 PV (M)	56.37	58.58	60.85
Year 5 PV (M)	58.79	61.69	64.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,561.91	1,638.87	1,718.84
Equity Value (M)	1,829.21	1,914.30	2,002.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	905.78	905.78	905.78
Fair Value	$2.02	$2.11	$2.21
Upside / Downside	-57.21%	-55.22%	-53.16%

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Zhejiang Zhongcheng Packing Material Co., Ltd. (002522.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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