Definitive Analysis
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Zhongyeda Electric Co., Ltd. (002441.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.63 - $17.47$11.12
Multi-Stage$9.93 - $10.88$10.40
Blended Fair Value$10.76
Current Price$9.11
Upside18.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.74%10.95%0.300.350.350.250.220.230.120.080.110.13
YoY Growth---13.96%0.00%40.03%13.60%-3.39%89.87%51.05%-27.27%-14.57%20.00%
Dividend Yield--3.28%4.23%3.23%2.76%2.94%3.13%1.42%0.88%0.87%0.78%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)210.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)163.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)46.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)42.0726.3015.78
Cash Retained (M)46.4746.4746.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-42.07-26.30-15.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.4020.1830.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)548.18548.18548.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.42%3.42%4.42%
Fair Value$7.63$11.12$17.47
Upside / Downside-16.27%22.09%91.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)210.37217.56225.00232.69240.64248.86256.33
Payout Ratio77.91%80.33%82.75%85.16%87.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)163.90174.76186.18198.17210.76223.98237.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate2.42%3.42%4.42%
Year 1 PV (M)162.45164.04165.62
Year 2 PV (M)160.87164.02167.21
Year 3 PV (M)159.16163.87168.67
Year 4 PV (M)157.35163.58170.00
Year 5 PV (M)155.44163.17171.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,648.734,880.155,120.70
Equity Value (M)5,443.995,698.845,963.42
Shares Outstanding (M)548.18548.18548.18
Fair Value$9.93$10.40$10.88
Upside / Downside9.01%14.12%19.41%

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