DDM Analysis: 002428.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.54 - $4.22	$2.38
Multi-Stage	$1.14 - $1.24	$1.19
Blended Fair Value	$1.78
Current Price	$28.90
Upside	-93.83%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.94%	-2.11%	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	81.84%	5.72%	-8.63%	34.10%	45.54%	58.62%	-10.05%	-65.57%	-29.85%	-31.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.35%	0.34%	0.32%	0.29%	0.30%	0.23%	0.16%	0.11%	0.32%	0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	40.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1.24

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.35	5.22	3.13
Cash Retained (M)	1.24	1.24	1.24
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.35	-5.22	-3.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-7.11	-3.98	-1.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	649.21	649.21	649.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.06	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	9.02%	9.02%	9.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1.54	$2.38	$4.22
Upside / Downside	-94.66%	-91.75%	-85.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.77	44.48	47.38	50.46	53.73	57.23	58.94
Payout Ratio	97.03%	95.62%	94.22%	92.81%	91.41%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	40.53	42.54	44.64	46.83	49.12	51.50	54.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.02%	9.02%	9.02%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	38.65	39.02	39.38
Year 2 PV (M)	36.86	37.56	38.27
Year 3 PV (M)	35.14	36.14	37.17
Year 4 PV (M)	33.49	34.78	36.10
Year 5 PV (M)	31.91	33.45	35.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)	561.53	588.66	616.82
Equity Value (M)	737.57	769.60	802.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	649.21	649.21	649.21
Fair Value	$1.14	$1.19	$1.24
Upside / Downside	-96.07%	-95.90%	-95.72%

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Yunnan Lincang Xinyuan Germanium Industry Co.,LTD (002428.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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