DDM Analysis: 002357.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.14 - $7.78	$6.39
Multi-Stage	$12.20 - $13.45	$12.81
Blended Fair Value	$9.60
Current Price	$10.20
Upside	-5.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.48%	-14.04%	0.12	0.07	0.19	0.09	0.07	0.18	0.19	0.26	0.31	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	76.42%	-63.82%	126.12%	24.66%	-62.33%	-6.38%	-26.09%	-14.16%	-17.72%	-33.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.68%	1.13%	3.20%	1.53%	1.48%	3.04%	2.88%	2.60%	2.46%	2.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	187.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	47.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)	140.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	37.60	23.50	14.10
Cash Retained (M)	140.82	140.82	140.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-37.60	-23.50	-14.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)	103.22	117.32	126.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	313.49	313.49	313.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.37	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.33	0.37	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.48	0.52	0.55
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.68%	-1.68%	-0.68%
Fair Value	$5.14	$6.39	$7.78
Upside / Downside	-49.58%	-37.39%	-23.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	187.99	184.83	181.72	178.66	175.66	172.70	177.89
Payout Ratio	25.09%	38.07%	51.05%	64.04%	77.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	47.17	70.37	92.77	114.41	135.29	155.43	164.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.68%	-1.68%	-0.68%
Year 1 PV (M)	65.46	66.14	66.81
Year 2 PV (M)	80.30	81.95	83.63
Year 3 PV (M)	92.12	94.99	97.92
Year 4 PV (M)	101.34	105.57	109.93
Year 5 PV (M)	108.32	114.00	119.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,375.92	3,552.97	3,737.37
Equity Value (M)	3,823.46	4,015.62	4,215.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	313.49	313.49	313.49
Fair Value	$12.20	$12.81	$13.45
Upside / Downside	19.57%	25.58%	31.84%

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Sector

Sichuan Fulin Transportation Group Co., Ltd. (002357.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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