Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Asia Paper Manufacturing.Co.,Ltd (002310.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12,967.98 - $38,671.16$20,528.60
Multi-Stage$14,409.45 - $15,801.95$15,092.61
Blended Fair Value$17,810.61
Current Price$7,780.00
Upside128.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.22%16.30%409.73335.02204.14158.77136.09170.11102.07113.090.00101.79
YoY Growth--22.30%64.12%28.57%16.67%-20.00%66.67%-9.75%0.00%-100.00%12.50%
Dividend Yield--6.16%3.72%2.87%1.82%1.39%3.15%1.13%1.74%0.00%2.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,548.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,745.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,803.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,109.772,568.601,541.16
Cash Retained (M)11,803.0311,803.0311,803.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,109.77-2,568.60-1,541.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)7,693.279,234.4310,261.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)39.4939.4939.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share194.84233.87259.89
LTM Dividend per Share221.49221.49221.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share194.84233.87259.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend416.33455.36481.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Fair Value$12,967.98$20,528.60$38,671.16
Upside / Downside66.68%163.86%397.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,548.8421,373.9922,232.2723,125.0124,053.6125,019.4925,770.08
Payout Ratio42.56%52.05%61.54%71.02%80.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,745.8011,124.9113,680.9916,424.4119,366.0922,517.5423,837.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.02%4.02%5.02%
Year 1 PV (M)10,362.7510,463.3410,563.93
Year 2 PV (M)11,870.6412,102.2212,336.04
Year 3 PV (M)13,274.6913,665.0414,062.96
Year 4 PV (M)14,579.9115,154.3315,745.56
Year 5 PV (M)15,791.0916,572.5617,384.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)503,092.48527,989.45553,862.49
Equity Value (M)568,971.55595,946.93623,955.65
Shares Outstanding (M)39.4939.4939.49
Fair Value$14,409.45$15,092.61$15,801.95
Upside / Downside85.21%93.99%103.11%

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