DDM Analysis: 002279.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.64 - $1.08	$0.83
Multi-Stage	$0.62 - $0.67	$0.64
Blended Fair Value	$0.74
Current Price	$6.73
Upside	-89.06%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-85.19%	-62.92%	0.00	0.00	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-95.68%	-99.74%	-33.28%	36.92%	-30.72%	-47.41%	110.11%	-18.52%	18.35%	-35.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.19%	0.45%	0.38%	0.42%	0.52%	0.18%	0.20%	0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	43.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	43.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.71	5.44	3.27
Cash Retained (M)	43.54	43.54	43.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.71	-5.44	-3.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	34.83	38.10	40.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	861.44	861.44	861.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.04	0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.04	0.04	0.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	3.41%	4.41%	5.41%
Fair Value	$0.64	$0.83	$1.08
Upside / Downside	-90.55%	-87.69%	-83.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	43.55	45.47	47.48	49.57	51.76	54.04	55.66
Payout Ratio	0.01%	18.01%	36.00%	54.00%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.00	8.19	17.09	26.77	37.27	48.64	51.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	3.41%	4.41%	5.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	7.37	7.44	7.51
Year 2 PV (M)	13.86	14.13	14.40
Year 3 PV (M)	19.55	20.12	20.70
Year 4 PV (M)	24.50	25.46	26.45
Year 5 PV (M)	28.80	30.22	31.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	436.17	457.67	480.01
Equity Value (M)	530.25	555.04	580.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	861.44	861.44	861.44
Fair Value	$0.62	$0.64	$0.67
Upside / Downside	-90.85%	-90.43%	-89.98%

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Beijing Join-Cheer Software Co., Ltd. (002279.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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