DDM Analysis: 002244.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$128.67 - $210.75	$197.50
Multi-Stage	$33.89 - $37.12	$35.47
Blended Fair Value	$116.49
Current Price	$12.55
Upside	828.19%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.69%	9.73%	0.68	0.89	1.09	1.06	0.81	0.54	0.39	0.15	0.15	0.23
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.18%	-18.48%	2.83%	30.76%	49.32%	37.23%	162.86%	-2.98%	-32.45%	-14.83%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.51%	12.98%	11.87%	15.40%	18.07%	13.00%	7.58%	2.03%	2.20%	3.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,306.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	817.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,489.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	661.38	413.36	248.02
Cash Retained (M)	2,489.56	2,489.56	2,489.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-661.38	-413.36	-248.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,828.18	2,076.20	2,241.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,120.61	3,120.61	3,120.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.59	0.67	0.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.85	0.93	0.98
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$128.67	$197.50	$210.75
Upside / Downside	925.28%	1,473.71%	1,579.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,306.90	3,521.85	3,750.77	3,994.57	4,254.22	4,530.74	4,666.66
Payout Ratio	24.72%	37.77%	50.83%	63.89%	76.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	817.34	1,330.30	1,906.50	2,551.99	3,273.33	4,077.67	4,316.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,240.93	1,252.70	1,264.46
Year 2 PV (M)	1,658.95	1,690.55	1,722.45
Year 3 PV (M)	2,071.45	2,130.91	2,191.50
Year 4 PV (M)	2,478.47	2,573.78	2,671.82
Year 5 PV (M)	2,880.07	3,019.18	3,163.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	95,424.09	100,033.11	104,818.53
Equity Value (M)	105,753.97	110,700.24	115,832.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,120.61	3,120.61	3,120.61
Fair Value	$33.89	$35.47	$37.12
Upside / Downside	170.03%	182.66%	195.77%

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Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.,Ltd (002244.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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