Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Dalian Huarui Heavy Industry Group Co., Ltd. (002204.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.31 - $61.63$57.75
Multi-Stage$36.55 - $40.11$38.30
Blended Fair Value$48.02
Current Price$6.41
Upside649.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.38%5.95%0.060.040.030.040.040.040.030.020.020.02
YoY Growth--25.41%46.78%-17.30%-14.12%14.38%44.07%34.18%14.62%-31.64%-21.28%
Dividend Yield--0.90%0.95%0.59%0.95%1.21%1.28%0.60%0.47%0.31%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)592.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)126.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)466.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)118.5174.0744.44
Cash Retained (M)466.15466.15466.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-118.51-74.07-44.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)347.64392.08421.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,912.291,912.291,912.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate1.71%1.71%1.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.31$57.75$61.63
Upside / Downside716.01%800.97%861.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)592.57631.08672.10715.79762.32811.87836.22
Payout Ratio21.33%35.07%48.80%62.53%76.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)126.42221.30327.99447.61581.39730.68773.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.71%1.71%1.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)215.54217.58219.62
Year 2 PV (M)311.12317.05323.03
Year 3 PV (M)413.53425.40437.49
Year 4 PV (M)523.13543.25563.94
Year 5 PV (M)640.33671.26703.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)67,785.9471,060.0374,459.42
Equity Value (M)69,889.5873,234.5676,706.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,912.291,912.291,912.29
Fair Value$36.55$38.30$40.11
Upside / Downside470.16%497.45%525.78%

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