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Definitive Analysis

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Tianshui Huatian Technology Co., Ltd. (002185.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.08 - $49.58$46.46
Multi-Stage$8.87 - $9.71$9.28
Blended Fair Value$27.87
Current Price$11.78
Upside136.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.70%20.46%0.120.140.130.090.010.060.040.020.020.02
YoY Growth---10.83%3.54%41.99%623.72%-79.97%73.74%62.02%7.19%-14.18%30.74%
Dividend Yield--1.14%1.69%1.30%0.88%0.11%0.65%0.69%0.33%0.36%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)428.66
(=) Cash Retained (M)373.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.37100.2360.14
Cash Retained (M)373.18373.18373.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.37-100.23-60.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)212.81272.95313.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,216.443,216.443,216.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.08$46.46$49.58
Upside / Downside257.23%294.42%320.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.85853.97909.47968.591,031.551,098.601,131.56
Payout Ratio53.46%60.77%68.08%75.38%82.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)428.66518.94619.13730.16853.01988.741,046.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.93%5.93%5.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)485.29489.89494.49
Year 2 PV (M)541.44551.76562.17
Year 3 PV (M)597.14614.28631.75
Year 4 PV (M)652.37677.46703.26
Year 5 PV (M)707.15741.30776.76
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,552.4726,786.6628,068.09
Equity Value (M)28,535.8529,861.3531,236.52
Shares Outstanding (M)3,216.443,216.443,216.44
Fair Value$8.87$9.28$9.71
Upside / Downside-24.69%-21.19%-17.56%

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