DDM Analysis: 002181.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.87 - $1.19	$1.03
Multi-Stage	$1.45 - $1.60	$1.53
Blended Fair Value	$1.28
Current Price	$8.05
Upside	-84.11%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	34.52%	-3.78%	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.07	0.09	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	54.38%	-12.17%	-35.48%	-14.49%	488.76%	110.78%	0.00%	-100.00%	-94.56%	-77.14%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.22%	0.95%	0.83%	1.81%	2.07%	0.33%	0.11%	0.00%	0.02%	0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	184.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	177.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	36.86	23.04	13.82
Cash Retained (M)	177.89	177.89	177.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-36.86	-23.04	-13.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)	141.03	154.86	164.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,160.95	1,160.95	1,160.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.13	0.14
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.12	0.13	0.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-4.54%	-3.54%	-2.54%
Fair Value	$0.87	$1.03	$1.19
Upside / Downside	-89.24%	-87.19%	-85.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	184.31	177.79	171.50	165.43	159.57	153.93	158.54
Payout Ratio	3.48%	20.79%	38.09%	55.39%	72.70%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6.42	36.95	65.32	91.63	116.00	138.53	146.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.46%	9.46%	9.46%
Growth Rate	-4.54%	-3.54%	-2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)	33.41	33.76	34.11
Year 2 PV (M)	53.40	54.52	55.66
Year 3 PV (M)	67.72	69.88	72.07
Year 4 PV (M)	77.52	80.81	84.22
Year 5 PV (M)	83.69	88.17	92.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,372.09	1,445.48	1,521.97
Equity Value (M)	1,687.83	1,772.62	1,860.87
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,160.95	1,160.95	1,160.95
Fair Value	$1.45	$1.53	$1.60
Upside / Downside	-81.94%	-81.03%	-80.09%

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Guangdong Guangzhou Daily Media Co., Ltd. (002181.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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