Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Guomai Technologies, Inc. (002093.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.09 - $8.67$5.80
Multi-Stage$2.91 - $3.19$3.05
Blended Fair Value$4.43
Current Price$11.26
Upside-60.69%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.81%24.13%0.080.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.070.01
YoY Growth--646.40%-0.04%-0.02%0.06%-33.41%0.00%50.00%-84.91%671.81%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.66%0.14%0.12%0.15%0.16%0.16%0.15%0.11%0.67%0.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)216.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)215.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)43.2927.0616.23
Cash Retained (M)215.75215.75215.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-43.29-27.06-16.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)172.46188.70199.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)992.99992.99992.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.170.190.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.09$5.80$8.67
Upside / Downside-63.69%-48.46%-23.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)216.46230.53245.51261.47278.47296.57305.46
Payout Ratio0.33%18.26%36.20%54.13%72.07%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.7142.1088.86141.53200.68266.91282.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.9138.2738.63
Year 2 PV (M)72.0773.4474.83
Year 3 PV (M)103.37106.34109.36
Year 4 PV (M)131.99137.07142.29
Year 5 PV (M)158.09165.73173.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,390.862,506.342,626.24
Equity Value (M)2,894.293,027.183,165.00
Shares Outstanding (M)992.99992.99992.99
Fair Value$2.91$3.05$3.19
Upside / Downside-74.11%-72.93%-71.69%

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