Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Sieyuan Electric Co., Ltd. (002028.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.13 - $144.32$95.76
Multi-Stage$47.63 - $52.09$49.82
Blended Fair Value$72.79
Current Price$109.02
Upside-33.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.44%13.61%0.400.300.200.200.100.100.100.100.160.08
YoY Growth--34.21%50.61%0.95%99.02%0.34%-0.97%2.68%-39.37%101.73%-29.32%
Dividend Yield--0.53%0.51%0.44%0.60%0.33%0.55%0.78%0.60%1.03%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,749.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,745.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)549.81343.63206.18
Cash Retained (M)2,745.102,745.102,745.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-549.81-343.63-206.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,195.292,401.472,538.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)780.98780.98780.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.813.073.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.813.073.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.823.083.26
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.13$95.76$144.32
Upside / Downside-38.42%-12.16%32.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,749.072,927.763,118.073,320.743,536.593,766.473,879.46
Payout Ratio0.14%18.12%36.09%54.06%72.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.97530.381,125.211,795.122,547.373,389.823,588.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)477.96482.49487.02
Year 2 PV (M)913.78931.19948.76
Year 3 PV (M)1,313.741,351.451,389.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,680.011,744.621,811.07
Year 5 PV (M)2,014.662,111.972,213.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)30,796.2832,283.7633,828.16
Equity Value (M)37,196.4338,905.4740,677.89
Shares Outstanding (M)780.98780.98780.98
Fair Value$47.63$49.82$52.09
Upside / Downside-56.31%-54.31%-52.22%

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