DDM Analysis: 001213.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.19 - $1.84	$1.49
Multi-Stage	$2.73 - $3.01	$2.87
Blended Fair Value	$2.18
Current Price	$4.17
Upside	-47.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	56.76%	58.80%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.45%	0.91%	0.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	566.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	271.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)	295.65

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	113.35	70.84	42.51
Cash Retained (M)	295.65	295.65	295.65
(-) Cash Required (M)	-113.35	-70.84	-42.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)	182.29	224.80	253.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,444.61	4,444.61	4,444.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.10	0.11	0.12
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$1.19	$1.49	$1.84
Upside / Downside	-71.45%	-64.19%	-55.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	566.76	561.09	555.48	549.92	544.42	538.98	555.15
Payout Ratio	47.84%	56.27%	64.70%	73.13%	81.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	271.11	315.72	359.40	402.18	444.07	485.08	513.51

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	293.74	296.73	299.73
Year 2 PV (M)	311.10	317.48	323.93
Year 3 PV (M)	323.89	333.91	344.13
Year 4 PV (M)	332.73	346.52	360.73
Year 5 PV (M)	338.15	355.76	374.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,535.97	11,084.61	11,655.86
Equity Value (M)	12,135.58	12,735.01	13,358.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,444.61	4,444.61	4,444.61
Fair Value	$2.73	$2.87	$3.01
Upside / Downside	-34.52%	-31.29%	-27.92%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Railway Special Cargo Logistics Co., Ltd. (001213.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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