Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Huagong Tech Company Limited (000988.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$270.69 - $318.91$298.87
Multi-Stage$180.64 - $198.27$189.29
Blended Fair Value$244.08
Current Price$92.48
Upside163.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.81%16.02%0.230.190.150.090.090.050.070.080.070.07
YoY Growth--18.30%27.76%61.95%7.03%76.32%-27.05%-13.96%12.85%2.00%32.35%
Dividend Yield--0.55%0.52%0.59%0.46%0.42%0.25%0.42%0.51%0.47%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,604.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)261.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,342.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)320.89200.56120.33
Cash Retained (M)1,342.681,342.681,342.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-320.89-200.56-120.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,021.791,142.121,222.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.541,000.541,000.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.141.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.141.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate2.64%2.64%2.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$270.69$298.87$318.91
Upside / Downside192.70%223.17%244.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,604.461,708.751,819.821,938.102,064.082,198.252,264.19
Payout Ratio16.32%31.05%45.79%60.53%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)261.78530.61833.281,173.061,553.491,978.422,094.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.64%2.64%2.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)512.11516.97521.82
Year 2 PV (M)776.20790.98805.91
Year 3 PV (M)1,054.611,084.891,115.73
Year 4 PV (M)1,347.941,399.781,453.10
Year 5 PV (M)1,656.801,736.831,819.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)175,391.17183,862.63192,658.31
Equity Value (M)180,738.84189,392.08198,374.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,000.541,000.541,000.54
Fair Value$180.64$189.29$198.27
Upside / Downside95.33%104.68%114.39%

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