DDM Analysis: 000968.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$6.14 - $11.45	$8.31
Multi-Stage	$10.55 - $11.60	$11.07
Blended Fair Value	$9.69
Current Price	$6.84
Upside	41.63%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.51%	0.99%	0.30	0.22	0.15	0.17	0.16	0.17	0.11	0.17	0.15	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	37.71%	43.02%	-10.42%	4.13%	-1.87%	45.81%	-32.81%	10.65%	-45.74%	4.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.67%	3.27%	1.92%	2.20%	2.56%	1.89%	0.87%	1.34%	1.09%	3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	400.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	96.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	304.70

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	80.15	50.10	30.06
Cash Retained (M)	304.70	304.70	304.70
(-) Cash Required (M)	-80.15	-50.10	-30.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	224.54	254.60	274.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	968.81	968.81	968.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.26	0.28
LTM Dividend per Share	0.10	0.10	0.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.23	0.26	0.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.33	0.36	0.38
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Fair Value	$6.14	$8.31	$11.45
Upside / Downside	-10.28%	21.46%	67.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	400.76	407.87	415.10	422.46	429.96	437.58	450.71
Payout Ratio	23.97%	37.18%	50.38%	63.59%	76.79%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	96.06	151.63	209.14	268.64	330.18	393.82	416.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	0.77%	1.77%	2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)	141.37	142.77	144.17
Year 2 PV (M)	181.78	185.40	189.07
Year 3 PV (M)	217.69	224.23	230.91
Year 4 PV (M)	249.45	259.50	269.85
Year 5 PV (M)	277.38	291.42	306.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,154.76	9,618.08	10,099.99
Equity Value (M)	10,222.42	10,721.41	11,240.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	968.81	968.81	968.81
Fair Value	$10.55	$11.07	$11.60
Upside / Downside	54.26%	61.79%	69.62%

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Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited (000968.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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