DDM Analysis: 000953.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.08 - $0.11	$0.10
Multi-Stage	$0.22 - $0.24	$0.23
Blended Fair Value	$0.16
Current Price	$7.26
Upside	-97.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-15.49%	-45.54%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.10	0.13
YoY Growth	-	-	-4.00%	21.17%	-75.35%	-4.66%	57.66%	0.00%	-100.00%	-73.11%	-18.81%	-34.19%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%	0.00%	0.32%	0.87%	1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	7.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	0.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)	7.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1.58	0.99	0.59
Cash Retained (M)	7.86	7.86	7.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1.58	-0.99	-0.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	6.28	6.88	7.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	366.68	366.68	366.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.00	0.00	0.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.02	0.02	0.02
WACC / Discount Rate	7.22%	7.22%	7.22%
Growth Rate	-11.20%	-10.20%	-9.20%
Fair Value	$0.08	$0.10	$0.11
Upside / Downside	-98.86%	-98.66%	-98.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	7.90	7.09	6.37	5.72	5.14	4.61	4.75
Payout Ratio	0.42%	18.33%	36.25%	54.17%	72.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	0.03	1.30	2.31	3.10	3.70	4.15	4.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.22%	7.22%	7.22%
Growth Rate	-11.20%	-10.20%	-9.20%
Year 1 PV (M)	1.20	1.21	1.23
Year 2 PV (M)	1.96	2.01	2.05
Year 3 PV (M)	2.43	2.51	2.60
Year 4 PV (M)	2.68	2.80	2.93
Year 5 PV (M)	2.77	2.93	3.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)	69.49	73.49	77.68
Equity Value (M)	80.53	84.95	89.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	366.68	366.68	366.68
Fair Value	$0.22	$0.23	$0.24
Upside / Downside	-96.97%	-96.81%	-96.64%

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Guangxi Hechi Chemical Co., Ltd (000953.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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